Trumping Trump: A Gulliver Strategy

Trump is a commercial tycoon turned political typhoon. He’s taken a sledgehammer to the political establishment, steamrolling through the Republican primary and then snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in the US presidential election. Since then, there’s been no break from this dizzying roller-coaster ride. Core foundations and political tenets have been shaken. The transatlantic alliance, NATO’s collective defense, free trade, a free press, rule of law, all have been challenged. It’s been bunker, not beacon America.

Yet, looking beyond the fog of Trump’s tweets, it’s becoming clear that, in spite of Republican control of both houses, his Presidency isn’t going to be all smooth sailing. What seems to be effective in countering Trump is a “Gulliver strategy” – a convergence of many different smaller actors to contain him, as in Jonathan Swift’s novel Gulliver’s Travels. In this classic, the protagonist Gulliver is washed ashore after a shipwreck and awakes to find himself pinned down by a multitude of tiny people, inhabitants of the island country of Lilliput.

What we are seeing is a multitude of smaller actors outside of Washington D.C. restraining Trump. Lawyers, judges, attorneys and citizens all rallied against Trump’s immigration order back in January. At least 44 US states are so far resisting the voter data request from the Trump Commission. And an army of mayors are countering Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord.

The last in particular is an example of how he can be side-lined. Trump may proclaim that he’s withdrawing the US from the Paris deal, but US climate ambition can continue without him. Just recently, 1.400 US mayors, Republicans and Democrats, pledged to support cities’ adoption of 100 per cent renewable energy by 2035. Governors and US states have also pushed ahead. And they can make a huge impact. According to an analysis by Carbon Brief, these states have enough power to reduce their own emissions to such an extent that the US could still meet the CO2 reduction target committed to under the Paris Agreement.

These actors need strengthening! That means it’s time to dust-off the old city partnerships, build bridges between European regions and American states, and bring different players together. For example, the German region of Baden-Wuerttemberg has together with California launched the Under2MoU climate initiative in 2015. It includes a total of 176 jurisdictions representing 1.2 billion people and Trump’s Paris withdrawal is the perfect opportunity to now bring more US states and cities to join this initiative.

There’s been too much hoping that individuals in the administration like McMaster, Tillerson, Kushner or House and Senate Republicans might have a stabilising, tempering influence on Trump. They don’t. Trump is a one-way train. And as Dietrich Bonhoeffer, the German anti-Nazi dissident and pastor, once said “if you board the wrong train, it is no use running along the corridor in the opposite direction”.

House and Senate Republicans are likely to discontinue their support of Trump once their voter base starts to shrink. But in the meantime, the checks and balances on Trump’s Presidency are the many local and regional actors, the brave men and women doing their jobs working in the media, judiciary, law enforcement, and so many other places.

Russia and Germany’s SPD: Energy ties that bind

Respect! This week the US Senate voted to fortify US sanctions against Russia. The new amendments on the Iran sanctions bill would require the President to seek congressional approval before lifting any of the Russia sanctions. Trump’s elbow room on Russia is closing. This is a big deal. Not only because it was a bipartisan agreement between Republicans and Democrats, but also because Republicans went against the wishes of the US administration.

Additionally, the Senate went even further, expanding the sanction measures against those supplying arms to Syria and those conducting cyberattacks. Most prominently for Europe, the US Senate launched a broadside against Gazprom’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a project that would bypass Ukraine as a transit country and expand Russian gas supplies directly to Germany.  The Senate clearly stated its opposition to the gas line “given its detrimental impacts on the European Union’s energy security” and put in a provision that would allow the administration to sanction EU companies involved in any Russian export pipeline (read: Nord Stream 2).

This is a milestone development. It strengthens US resolve on the Russia sanctions and should somewhat ease European worries about Trump going soft on Russia. And it puts further pressure on Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that the majority of EU Member States and the European Commission oppose for obvious geopolitical reasons.

Yet, the tone from Berlin is hysterical. Foreign Minister Gabriel has sharply criticised the proposal. Chancellor Merkel is backing Gabriel on this, albeit via a statement from her press spokesperson. And German Economy Minister Zypries has even speculatively floated the idea of countermeasures against the US in this regard. They consider the US Senate act an offense to the German energy companies in bed with Gazprom and claim the US is shamelessly promoting its own energy interests given its potential for shale gas exports to Europe

What nonsense!

The arguments don’t stand up to any scrutiny. First, US gas export infrastructure ain’t sufficient to make any relevant dent in the EU’s gas imports from Russia any time soon. And second, Asian markets would economically be more profitable for US gas exporters. Europe’s energy security isn’t strengthened by increasing dependence on Russia via yet another pipeline.

What’s actually at play is a kind of Schroederisation of the election campaign.

Gerhard Schroeder, the Socialist former Chancellor of Germany, successfully used anti-American rhetoric in his opposition to the Iraq War to win re-election in 2002.

Having crashed down in the opinion polls, the SPD is desperately clutching at straws, hoping that strong rhetoric against the US will bring them back some dynamic. Chancellor Merkel is aware of that threat and tried to pre-empt it with her speech in Trudering, where she highlighted that Europe can no longer rely on the US. But she too is aware of the pitfalls of going overboard. Hence, why her statement came from the press spokesperson.

The Socialist criticism of the US Senate is comical. It puts the SPD in the same camp as Trump, since his administration had been against these Senate amendments as well. So the SPD is actually supporting Trump now on Russia. You couldn’t make this stuff up.

In a declaration against the US Senate amendments, German Foreign Minister Gabriel and the Austrian Chancellor Kern state that “we decide upon who delivers us energy according to the rules of openness and market competition”, and that geopolitical interests shouldn’t interfere with economic interests. If that’s the case then what’s up with the EU sanctions regime? Aren’t geopolitical interests at play here that interfere with economic interests? Should the sanctions now also be sacrificed on the altar of economic interests?

This whole episode clearly shows again the deep ties that bind the German Socialists to the Russian regime and its energy exports. Gerhard Schroeder, now on the payroll of Gazprom as one of its chief lobbyists, is obviously doing a good job inside his party.

The SPD is known to pursue a traditional Russia policy of Wandel durch Annäherung (‘change through rapprochement’), stating that Russia can be changed through close ties. The problem is that it’s not Russia that’s changing, it’s the SPD akin to Nietzsche who said “when you gaze long into the abyss. The abyss gazes also into you”.

Putin and his regime are masters at network diplomacy, penetrating deep into all kinds of social, economic and political structures. The intermingling of economic, political and private ties, as so highlighted by Gerhard Schroeder is dangerous. It pits personal against national/European interests. Even the Notorious B.I.G. understood this point, when he said in his 10 rap commandments that rule 7 is crucial but “so underrated: keep your family and business completely separated”.

EU Member States opposing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline need to come out swinging in favour of the US Senate, lobby the US Congress and administration in favour of the legislation, and criticise Germany for its position. Pressure on Germany needs to increase in order to deep-six the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

The Internet of Wild Things: Why EU Cybersecurity makes me wannacry

More than 200.000 computers infected, more than 150 countries affected, a total cost of up to 4 billion USD, and countless hospitals, factories, and services shutdown – that was the result of the worldwide cyberattack known as WannaCry. Putting its direct impact aside, however, the Wannacry attack painfully laid bare the cyber vulnerabilities of our age.

Cyberattacks are by far no longer a niche issue or futuristic material for blockbuster movies like Die Hard 4.0. They’re a daily reality. Last year in Europe, almost 70% of large businesses and half of all small businesses are estimated to have been victims to a cyberattack. And that’s no great surprise. The majority of companies doesn’t even have formal cyber security policies in place. Most worryingly perhaps is that the majority of cyber intrusions focus on a crucial people-oriented sector: healthcare. A recent report into cyber security trends highlighted that almost 20% of all attacks target that particular industry. The WannaCry attack, for example, affected many National Health Service hospitals in England and Scotland. All kinds of devices had been infected, ranging from computers and blood-storage refrigerators to MRI scanners.

The alarm bells have been ringing for some time now and WannaCry was a wake-up call that due to its global reach, finally jolted some into action. Germany, for example, has now stated its intention to update its cybersecurity legislation to include the health care and financial sectors in its list of critical industries that require minimum cybersecurity standards.

The European Union has also been working on its cybersecurity legislation, having put into place its NIS Directive (Directive on security of network and information systems), which must be implemented by the EU Member States by May 2018. This Directive obliges critical institutions and infrastructures to have basic minimum cybersecurity standards.

However, in this fast-evolving brave new digital world, catching-up just ain’t good enough. The pace and extent of digitalisation is so fast and wide that legislation needs to adapt accordingly. That means not just reacting but pro-actively considering and putting into place cybersecurity safeguards for emerging fields.

Digitalisation is a base innovation, similar to the invention of electricity. It is spreading like wildfire into every sector, service and product. Everything is becoming connected. The Internet of Things is a prime example where regular products from coffee machines to baby dolls are being digitised. But our cybersecurity legislation is not taking it into account. These devices don’t need to have any basic cybersecurity standards. As such, the Internet of Things can through cyber-manipulation actually turn into an Internet of Wild Things.

Just last year, a massive cyberattack took control over thousands of internet-connected devices – ranging from cameras, kettles, thermostats and TVs – to then use this “zombie army” of things to take down sites such as Twitter, Spotify and Paypal.

These internet-connected products are often sold as “smart devices”. They’re not. Without basic cybersecurity standards, they’re stupid devices. They open a cyber door into our digital and physical lives. They can be the entry point, allowing someone to cross-over into other digital areas such as your credit card details. They can create vulnerability. As has also been shown in automated cars that have been hacked into and hijacked so to speak.

There’s a large vacuum in this field that needs to be filled. And the longer it takes to fill it, the more vulnerable digital society will become. Because any new legislation calling for basic IT standards on connected devices would arguably only count for new devices sold in the market. But what about all those old smart devices that are already in circulation?

Secondly, there’s another fundamental question to be asked about connected devices. Let’s be realistic: a one-off cybersecurity standard won’t do. Cybersecurity is a non-stop game where software needs to be continually updated and expanded. That was also one of the reasons why so many computers had been infected by WannaCry – they were running out-of-date versions of Windows. How will such a process for updating connected devices be put into place? Is it realistic and would companies want to take on that responsibility? And what will its impact be? Izabella Kaminska, recently asked in an op-ed in the Financial Times what would happen in the case of self-driving cars, if one encounters “the spinning wheel of death (ie. a software update) just when they need to rush to hospital?” Digital systems can have physical effects.

The European Parliament in a recently adopted Report on Digitising European Industry has brought attention to this issue of connectivity. The report raises the issue that “producers are responsible for ensuring safety and cybersecurity standards as core design parameters” and that “cyber security requirements for the Internet of Things…would strengthen European cyber-resilience”. Hear Hear! The European Union Agency for Network and Information Security (ENISA) has also been promoting this issue, highlighting its damage potential.

Basic IT security parameters need to be put into place to ensure the Internet of Things doesn’t turn into the Internet of Wild Things. European policymakers need to move this issue forward in spite of industry moaning. As a first step, they could adapt public procurement rules in such a way that any connected device would be required to have basic cybersecurity standards.

Debating Ethics in the Digital Disruption

We are in the midst of perhaps the largest societal disruption in history. Digitalisation is changing the way we work, consume, communicate, think, live. And this in an incredibly short timeframe. The industrial revolution in the 18th Century took about 80 years. It resulted in mass urbanisation and mass technological, economic, societal, social, environmental, geostrategic and political change.

Digitalisation goes beyond this in many ways. Its change is not only faster, it accelerates life itself. It touches upon every sector and every facet of our lives. It’s revolutionising production, information, mobility, and so on. Autonomous cars, robots, artificial intelligence, automation, social media, are all transformative. They will define us; they will define society. This is the dream of the Silicon Valley pioneers. Harnessing the transformative powers of digitalisation to change society for the better.

This blue-eyed idealism, however, has some dark downsides. We’re aware of the information cocoon, the echo chambers, that our social media builds, which leads to greater social polarisation and extremism. We know that digitalisation impacts attention, memory, empathy and attitude. We know that it will impact the job market. But, we don’t know how it will do so, at what speed and depth, and what its meta-impact will be on our society at large.

Different doomsday scenarios are emerging. In a world of robots and artificial intelligence (AI), Israeli Historian Yuval Noah Harari is already talking of an upcoming “useless class”. A class of humans that will be living in a post-work world with no economic purpose. Principal researcher at Microsoft Research, Kate Crawford, has warned that in a world of rising nationalism AI could be a “fascists dream”, allowing authoritarian regimes an unprecedented amount of command and control. And Sir Mark Walport, UK chief scientific advisor, too has cautioned against the uncontrolled use of AI in areas such as medicine and the law, because AI can’t be neutral. AI is based on humans and human data. That means AI can take on the very inherent biases that we have, magnify them, and then act on them.

All kinds of ethical questions are emerging in this digital disruption. Who will be liable in a crash by an autonomous car or in a surgery gone wrong by a robot? What should be the algorithms used in autonomous cars – drive over and kill the pedestrian if it saves your life in a traffic situation, or crash and kill yourself, saving the pedestrian? What degree of regulation does social media require to combat fake news and hate speech, without impacting freedom of speech? Should robots be banned from certain tasks? Should there be regulation stating that final decisions must still be made by a human rather than by artificial intelligence? Akin to the military rule that a “kill decision” always has to be made by a human. How do we distribute wealth created by robots? And what happens to the workers displaced by robots?

The problem is, as Reinhold Niebuhr noted in his seminal work Moral Man and Immoral Society, that “the growing intelligence of mankind seems not to be growing rapidly enough to achieve mastery over the social problems, which the advances of technology create”. It is high time for a public debate on ethics and digital technology. Leading AI companies are already moving ahead. Facebook, Amazon, Google DeepMind, IBM, Apple, and Microsoft, this unholy alliance of competitors, has already joined hands in a Partnership on AI designed to initiate more public discussion on artificial intelligence. Why would that be? Because it’s about their business. Loss of public trust in these new technologies could significantly affect their business, burning the billions of dollars in research budgets put into AI.

The public discussion should not be for business to shape. Public authorities have leadership responsibility to put this on the political agenda, start this discussion and engage citizens in it. Some progress is taking place. The UK has established a Data Ethics Group at the Alan Turing Institute and the European Commission can also particularly be praised. Together with media partners from 19 EU countries (such as El Pais, The Guardian, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Gazeta Wyborcza, etc.) it has launched a massive set of internet consultations, engaging citizens in surveys on the impact of the digital world on jobs, privacy, health, democracy, security, and so on.

We need an ethical discussion on digital technologies to ensure that the safeguards we have in place for the analogue world are also in the digital world. Digitalisation is shaping and defining us. But we need to be the ones that shape and define it. So that it may give us its greatest advantage and the least disadvantage.

Dutch courage? Takeaways from the election

Relief! The Dutch voted against xenophobe populism. A clear victory against extremism, Francois Hollande called it. The nationalist Geert Wilders didn’t win. That’s what’s making the rounds. The fact that Wilders didn’t become the strongest party in town is significant. But let’s not drink too much of that Kool-Aid.

The closed-society populists didn’t per se lose. Wilders defined this election. He was front and centre of it. Issues of immigration, globalisation and Europe dominated the campaign discourse. And other parties rushed to join in, moving more to the right. Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s open letter, where he told immigrants to “doe normaal” (act normal) or go away, went in that direction.

Wilders won seats, the government parties lost seats. Labour tanked in this grand coalition. It lost around three-quarters of its seats, while the liberals lost eight. Now, Wilders PVV is the second largest party. It will be the parliament’s main opposition.

So this election didn’t stop the populists in their tracks. It slowed them down. It bought time. Time that will have to be used to win back the disenfranchised, dissatisfied and disillusioned. And this in a time where the political landscape is more fragmented than ever. Thirteen parties are entering the parliament. The new government is likely to be a coalition of four to six different parties. Agreeing on and sticking with an agenda for change will be difficult. But it’s imperative.

The election showed that politics is becoming political again. The field is wide open. Yes, it always was a bit more so in the Netherlands with its culture of multi-party government. But all over Europe we are witness to this phenomenon. Grand coalitions and the constant battle for the middle ground – with centre-right parties flirting left and centre-left parties flirting right – have drained politics. If everyone’s huddled in the centre, the extremist fringe looks like the only alternative.

Second, the election proved again that national elections are becoming more European. This election was a European election. All of Europe watched it, all of Europe discussed it, and Europe was part of the election debate. It also saw a record turnout of Dutch voters abroad. Twice as many Dutch from abroad voted in this election compared to 2012.

More importantly, however, it showed again that you can mobilise and motivate voters with a clear open-society, pro-European, constructive patriotic orientation. This pattern is hardening. Van der Bellen did it. Jesse Klaver just did it (almost quadrupling the Greens’ seats in the Dutch election). Macron is doing it. During the week of the Dutch election he went to Berlin with a pro-European message. And the Social Democrats in Germany are trying to do it. The Pulse of Europe citizens’ initiative demonstrates that people care about Europe and are willing to stand up for Europe. EU flags aren’t just swung in Ukraine. They are now swung every Sunday at 2pm in countless European cities, where citizens make their voice heard for a strong European Union.

This is part of the recipe on how to win elections currently – bringing together an open, tolerant, empathetic, pro-European vision with a grounded, civic, positive pride in your own country’s culture and way of life. It’s bringing together the outside and inside and forming it into an “us, together”. It’s a positive vision against the negative vision of the populists. And in doing so, it follows the advice of the great Dutch humanist Erasmus, namesake of the European student exchange programme: “Give light, and the darkness will disappear of itself.”

 

The cracks in society: Escaping the echo chamber is not enough

This year has been a watershed for progressive forces. The West is in the grip of a populist insurgency. Brexit and Trump are a result of this tide.

In search for explanations, one particular buzzword is defining the discourse: “echo chamber”. Many pundits have written insightfully on how progressives are stuck within their own filter bubble and have forgotten how to engage with those who think differently. They are right. But this doesn’t seem to go far enough. Perhaps, it’s too shallow an analysis. It’s not just about the (social media) echo chamber that simply reinforces your own worldview; it’s about the fact that societies have become more self-centred. Digitalisation has led to greater individualisation.

Yes, the digital environment empowers but it also makes selfish. With Fitbits and smartphones we continuously self-track our own activities and performance, in an effort to self-optimise. Facebook and Twitter echo our own views. It’s about ourselves. It’s an ethics of vanity that Edmund Burke warned against. The digital world reaffirms existence. I browse, therefore I am. Being online is who we are. Studies show that, on average, we are on our phones 221 times a day. Five and a half hours are each day supposedly spent on digital media. That number is even higher for younger generations. It diminishes the scope for intimate interaction. But it’s relationships and experiences that change people and make them grow. We cannot build our own individual ladders to heaven and leave the total human enterprise unredeemed, as Reinhold Niebuhr wrote.

The digital environment also breeds immediate desires, envy and painfully illustrates inequality. Algorithms show desirable products. Smartphones show how the most luxurious of society live. It’s now possible to constantly see a greener grass on the other side. Expectations are rising faster than before. And as digital technologies have grown so has participation in mediating institutions, such as trade unions, faith-based communities and civic organisations, fallen.

Alongside these trends there’s also greater isolation. Digitalisation and automation are changing the nature of the workforce in ways we do not yet comprehend, with people falling out of the workforce or falling into the digital self-employed. There are also too many losers of globalisation and people that feel left behind culturally. They feel no longer useful or part of something bigger. It’s like they’re falling out of society.

It is this mix of individualisation and isolation that weakens the social bonds of community and democracy. The World Values Survey has shown that there is a deconsolidation of democracy as particularly younger generations, drawn to digital technologies, are less attached to democratic values. The percentage of people who say it is essential to live in a democracy has plummeted. Less than 30% of Americans, Dutch and British citizens born in the 1980s believe so. Only 36% of millennials in Europe think that a military takeover against an incompetent government would be illegitimate.

Democracy is a system of compromise. But in this digital age, no one wants to compromise anymore. Over the past months and weeks I have met more and more people who are tired of compromise. They say they voted in an election and instead of getting what they wanted, they got a compromise. But democracy isn’t binary. It’s a long, messy, complicated, unsatisfactory compromising process. Populism, however, is the desire for fast, unrealistic solutions to complex problems.

The European Union is a prime example. Compromise has gotten ever more difficult to achieve between the EU Member States. But the EU is built on compromise. Compromising requires leadership. It usually requires the strong to give in and make that extra effort for the greater good. But Europe’s strongest Member State, Germany, has been reluctant to depart from its austerity drive, for example. Similarly with the United States. The US has been providing leadership and been an anchor for a rules-based world order. But with Donald Trump, the United States has voted to give up that role. People felt their country has done too much, given the world too much and that it was time to make America great again. Countless citizens feel that way about their country. Everybody wants to “Make X great again”, as Mark Lilla wrote in the New York Times.

We are moving from the Art of the Compromise to the Art of the Deal. Compromising is self-less. You give up something to find something greater together. Dealmaking is selfish. You expect something for giving something. No doubt, both are necessary in the tough world of international relations. And the EU, too, must engage in dealmaking. But dealmaking cannot stand alone in the world either.

There needs to be a better balance again between compromising and dealmaking, between change and security, between individualisation and community. Individualisation, too, can be a force for good. For example, when it unleashes the creative entrepreneurial spirit and allows people the freedom to fulfill themselves. But individualisation is getting more extreme. Simultaneously ,there is indeed a nascent desire for more community and coming together. The Munich “Refugee Welcome” event was one moment where that desire was awakened. Yet, bonds of society are currently loosening and societal rifts need healing.

That means it’s not enough to escape the echo chamber. One has to actively engage with opposing views and seek how these could be reconciled with one’s own and where common ground could lie. This is the tough question; it is a thin line that separates compromising from collaborating. How far can one go in finding common ground? Principled engagement should be the guide. Engaging and seeking compromise, finding common ground that can advance your principles. It’s the wisdom of the hitchhiker. If the first car that offers you a ride is only going halfway to your destination, take it.

Edmund Burke, the great conservative philosopher, warned against the loss of social wisdom, loss of community, loss of identity, all of which would bring social disorder. He highlighted that politics is not just about the interests of individuals; it’s about preserving a community, a social order. According to Jesse Norman, Burke epitomised the “balance between ego and circumstance, between ambition and constraint, between individuality and society”. Maybe it’s time again for more Burke and less Zuckerberg.

Sleepless in Europe: Implications of Trump’s Victory

The following is a longer article that I wrote for the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung Europe. You can find the original here.

I wasn’t going to make the same mistake twice. The last time a vote of historic proportions took place, I went to bed thinking catastrophe might just be averted. The next morning, I woke to a changed Europe; the United Kingdom had voted to leave the European Union. This time, I stayed up all night fearing the worst. As dawn broke, I went to sleep in a changed world; Donald Trump is US President-elect.

For months we have been witness to an election campaign that has brought out the worst in people, one defined by populism, elitism, egotism, sexism and racism. This has uncovered a country riven with deep societal wounds: the Disunited States of America.

Donald Trump positioned himself as the election’s change agent from the right, channelling the rage against the political machine. He was the outsider who rallied the disenfranchised, disempowered and disillusioned. They decided, better the devil we don’t know than the Clinton we know. He tapped into the defining American impulse for freedom and bastardised it. Not only did he promise to break free from the establishment and political correctness, in his rallies he also shook off long-established social codes, and with them decency and civility. In doing so, he gave credence to the words of the American novelist Marilynne Robinson that ‘no society is at any time immune to moral catastrophe’.

This isn’t just an American story – it’s a global story, it’s a European story. It’s the new Zeitgeist. Autocratic, ‘strong man’ politicians and parties have become the vanguard against the establishment and globalisation, in the words of American political scientist Mark Lilla, to ‘Make X Great Again’. It’s Trump, not Trudeau. Orban, not Obama. Putin, Erdogan, Duterte, Kaczynski – the list is growing. Former fringe parties and candidates are becoming mainstream, while the centre ground is slowly crumbling. Since 1990, the share of the vote held by the centre left and centre right has fallen by 12%.

The US election result is a populist wake-up call for the European Union, and it’s not its first. The alarm has been ringing for years: Hungary’s slide into illiberal democracy, the increased popularity of far-right parties in the European elections, backsliding on women’s rights and the rule of law in Poland, Brexit. Too often, though, the EU has hit the snooze button and finally woken up without a clue of what to do, or found itself in political gridlock. This has not been helped by the fact that, as in Washington D.C. in recent years, Brussels is plagued by political dysfunction. The European Union and its Member States have failed to implement the planned financial transaction tax, to fight tax havens, to agree on a system to manage the inflow of refugees, to advance sustainable debt relief for Greece…. The list goes on. In a world that is burning, the EU’s ‘leaky bucket’ efforts to quell the flames have unsurprisingly inspired little confidence. As a result, right-wing populist, left-wing populist, anti-EU parties are in the ascendant and the forces of disintegration are on the march inside the European Union.

Last week Wednesday, while millions of Europeans looked across the pond in disbelief and dismay, there were clearly also those who celebrated the bloody nose Trump gave the establishment. Far-right leaders such as Le Pen in France, Wilders in the Netherlands and Strache in Austria rejoiced over Trump’s victory. Europe’s populists hope that it will give them increased momentum in a number of crucial elections – in particular the referendum on constitutional reform in Italy, the re-run of the Austrian presidential election in December, and the general elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany in 2017. But how will Trump’s win, and the way the election campaign was conducted, actually affect politics in the EU?

Trump’s playbook – a European translation?

Populist parties in EU Member States will study Trump’s (and Farage’s) methods very closely. They are likely to continue the march of post-truth politics – appealing to emotion over fact, making outrageous statements that will provide cash-poor populists with media coverage. German right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has already admitted that it makes contemptible, outrageous statements to gain media attention, allowing it to dominate the political narrative. Likewise, it aims to discredit traditional media outlets as simple pro-establishment propaganda machines. Like Trump, who baptised CNN the ‘Clinton News Network’ and accused the media of pro-Clinton bias, the AfD and others deride the classical media networks as Lügenpresse (lying press). Simultaneously, populists are building and advancing their own media brands. The Breitbart News Network, the so-called voice of Donald Trump’s campaign, has already announced that it will expand its European operations from the UK into France and Germany.

With a little help from friends…

Foreign interference in European elections is also likely to be an increasingly important factor. The US electoral campaign showed the havoc caused by leaks and hacked e-mails. It is undeniable that Russia played a role in this. The Kremlin is not only funding ‘insurgent’ parties, it is also engaging in information warfare for their benefit. At a recent press conference, Chancellor Merkel confirmed that Germany ‘is currently having to deal […] with internet attacks that are of Russian origin, or with news which sows false information’. A case in point is the alleged abduction and rape of a Russian-German girl by asylum seekers which was reported in the Russian media. Although subsequently found by the German police to be without grounds, these reports and the Russian authorities’ subsequent accusation of a cover-up led to anti-migrant protests by the country’s large Russian minority at a very sensitive time.

A Brave New World: foreign policy under Donald Trump and the EU

To paraphrase Eminem: ‘Will the real Donald Trump please stand up?’ Naturally, it’s hard to predict the extent to which candidate Trump will be President Trump – you can’t study the script of an improv act. Already Trump is sounding more conciliatory ranging from his victory speech to his latest remarks on Obamacare. But, leaving aside his flip-flopping, demagoguery and the question of whether transatlanticist Republicans would be able to manage him, he has stuck to one consistent, albeit raw, foreign policy approach: ‘America First’. US interests will be front and centre. Consequently, if he sticks to this, he is likely to pursue a purely self-interested transactional ‘the Art of the Deal’ foreign policy.

The possible contours of such a Trump scenario throw all of the United States’ commitments and guarantees around the world into doubt. Everything could be up for negotiation, shaking the transatlantic alliance to its foundations and changing the very nature of the West. It puts the international order into a black box. Under such a policy, the United States would no longer be the guardian of the global rules-based liberal order. It would leave the West rudderless in uncharted waters. Great uncertainty now hangs over the world’s many theatres of crisis, ranging from Southeast Asia to Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

While US estrangement from Europe isn’t particularly new, this would be a historic break. The Bush administration didn’t particularly invest in the transatlantic alliance and instead divided the continent into New Europe and Old Europe. President Obama, similarly, showed little interest in the EU. A Pacific-oriented president, he pushed forward the pivot towards Asia and downgraded the transatlantic alliance. In 2011, former US Defence Secretary Robert Gates ominously declared that there is a ‘real possibility for a dim, if not dismal, future for the transatlantic alliance’. That future seems to be now.

Trump’s break with 70 years of US guarantees is a watershed moment. He has made no commitments to the transatlantic alliance, to NATO or to the defence of the Baltics. NATO in particular has been weakened not only by Donald Trump’s position but also by the authoritarian putsch that recently took place in Turkey. There are cracks appearing in the European security umbrella through which Russia is becoming increasingly visible. The Kremlin is being emboldened by the lack of American leadership and Trump’s refusal to make commitments. A Russian government spokesman has already suggested that Trump scale back NATO deployments to improve relations. It is also telling that, more or less on the same day that he sent a congratulatory telegram to Trump on his election victory, Putin said that he was ready to restore a dialogue with Poland. Now that feelings of insecurity and uncertainty have increased in the capitals of the Baltics and Central and Eastern Europe, Putin approaches them – from a position of strength – to offer talks.

Following his transactional approach, it is likely that a Trump administration would explore a grand deal with Russia on Ukraine. This could take the form of requesting Russia’s withdrawal from eastern Ukraine in return for the recognition of the annexation of Crimea, and guarantees that NATO would not expand to include Ukraine. Any such overtures would endanger European sanctions against Russia, which are already under pressure from many social democrats. Many EU Member States, but in particular the Baltic countries, would be extremely concerned by such a development. To what extent, or rather for what price, might President Trump open the door for such deals and leave countries such as Estonia – ‘the suburbs of St Petersburg’ according to ally Newt Gingrich – to Russia? Such deals and negotiations would lead to a return to ‘spheres of privileged interests’ and encourage brinkmanship and showmanship in the game for the best deal.

Donald Trump’s foreign policy approach also presents serious challenges in other policy fields. Nuclear proliferation could accelerate, the Iran deal could unravel, and the spectre of a global trade war looms, with Trump promising to slap more, higher tariffs on Chinese products and label China a currency manipulator. Also, given his criticism for trade deals, the controversial Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) is, for better or for worse, if not dead then at least on ice. President Juncker has already said that he doesn’t see TTIP materialising in the next two years. On the climate front, the European Union will also face difficulties. Donald Trump has tweeted that climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese to hurt American industry. His energy transition team is stacked with oil lobbyists and climate change sceptics, and he has vowed to exit the Paris Agreement.

Europe’s foreign strategy for Trump: engage, mitigate and lead

Trump is a rule-breaker in a rules-based order. He is also likely to seek to divide the EU Member States and play them off against each other. They mustn’t let him. The European Union must have a strategy in place. It was the right call for German Foreign Minister Steinmeier and the Commission to insist on a special meeting of the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council on Sunday to discuss the implications of the US elections for Europe, and it is more than a disappointment that the Foreign Ministers of France and the UK decided not to attend. As Europe’s largest military powers, it would have been necessary to have them at the table, when discussing Trump’s implications for Europe and European security. But while French Foreign Minister Ayrault had an excuse (he was meeting the UN Secretary-General), it’s clear that Foreign Secretary Johnson simply wants to ride the elevator alone in Trump Tower.

A European strategy must be built on three interlinked features: engagement, mitigation, leadership.

First and foremost, European leaders cannot wait for Trump to make up his mind by himself. They need to engage with him in unison and lay down their concerns and interests. Presidents Tusk and Juncker have already taken the opportunity to invite Donald Trump to Brussels for an EU-US Summit at his earliest convenience. But this mustn’t lead to unnecessary temporising. Until such a possible summit, the time needs to be used to create links with the new Trump administration, reach out to Republicans, and promote track II diplomacy. This will help to gain a better understanding of the incoming presidency and shape its thinking and personnel on Europe. Obama’s visit to Germany should be a valuable opportunity to hear his views on the matter. Likewise, different contacts and forums need to be utilised – be it US ambassadors in Europe, NATO, the OSCE and particularly bilateral contacts and visits. European leaders should also reach out and visit the US. If Prime Minister Theresa May, or any other EU head of state or government, visits the US soon, they should make sure to debrief their European counterparts with regard to foreign and security issues on their return. And a special responsibility lies with Mogherini to quickly establish working relations with the upcoming US Secretary of State. Trump has had conversations with a number of European leaders following his victory, but the person with whom he has spent most time so far appears to be UKIP leader Nigel Farage. European leaders shouldn’t let that stand.

The EU also needs to mitigate the possible worst consequences of the Trump presidency. That means accepting as a starter, as President Juncker said, that ‘the US will not forever take care of our security. We need to do it ourselves’. Europe needs to come together in the sensitive field of defence. To quote Abraham Lincoln, ‘A divided house cannot stand’. The EU needs to further develop its Global Strategy and reinforce its security architecture. That means boldly moving forward with a European Defence Union and employing the various different options available under the Lisbon Treaty, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation, to advance a common European defence agenda, for example by pooling and sharing military assets, procurement, R&D, putting in place a European Semester for defence, and so on. It means advancing military and defence cooperation with its northern neighbour Norway and exploring it with the UK in the context of Brexit.

Thirdly, as wishful as it might sound, the European Union needs to increase international leadership. We now live in a ‘no (wo)man’s world’ – a ‘G-0’ as coined by Ian Bremmer from the Eurasia Foundation. The vacuum Trump might leave needs to be filled. That means building alliances, for example with regional organisations such as ASEAN to help manage the South China Sea, with powers such as China, Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, and Brazil, by building coalitions on issues such as the global commons (climate change, management of the high seas, cybersecurity, space policy, etc.), by establishing and investing in formats to mitigate conflict such as the Normandy format or the P5+1 effort on Iran, and by shoring up global institutions such as the OSCE and UN.

Of course, it could all end up differently. There is the off-chance that Trump will leave behind the Trump of the past and now become presidential. But that’s wishful thinking and not something to base a policy on. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

For an open, progressive movement that connects the struggles

Last but not least, European democrats and progressives need to draw lessons from America’s election result. There are two hard facts that confront us.

First fact: the populists are winning. They are becoming the agent of change because they empower people who feel disempowered. Progressives have been fighting amazing battles for minority rights and gender equality, and have made major cultural progress. But somewhere along that line, we forgot about those that felt left behind and disempowered, who have started to feel like politics isn’t about them any longer. Too often these people have then also been treated with resentment. This needs to be addressed if we wish to overcome the current social divisions.

It means listening to and engaging with the people that feel left behind economically, socially and particularly culturally. US opinion poll analysts FiveThirtyEight illustrate the culture gap by comparing which American counties with organic supermarket Whole Foods and which with Southern-themed restaurant Cracker Barrel voted for Trump: Trump won 76 per cent of counties with a Cracker Barrel and 22 per cent with a Whole Foods. That’s a 54 per cent gap compared to 19 per cent in the 1992 election.

Not everyone who voted Trump is a sexist or a racist. If those people will not be heard by progressives, then they will be heard by the Trumps of this world. If progressives do not open up and engage with people that think differently, then they are creating the very conditions in which demagogues like Donald Trump can thrive, and are contributing to the problem. Shaming and labelling people isn’t going to change their minds; it’s just going keep them silent in the opinion polls until that silent majority steps inside the polling booth and then exercises its right to vote Trump.

Second fact: the autocratic populists are an international movement. Putin helps Trump emboldens Le Pen and the downward spiral continues. Progressives are fighting many separate battles and campaigns but have no common, transatlantic movement. It’s really crucial to connect the different struggles – the divestment campaign, the campaign for the rule of law in Hungary and Poland, workers’ rights campaigns such as fighting precarious jobs at Amazon and the pitfalls of digitalisation, protests against the Keystone, North Dakota and Nord Stream 2 pipelines, campaigns for indigenous rights, environmental and social movements, human rights campaigns, literary movements, the Black cultural revival in the US as so well demonstrated by the novelist Ta-Nehisi Coates and musician Robert Glasper – and by doing so build a progressive narrative of change. These transatlantic and intra-European bridges need building. It also means engaging with young people in a transatlantic context. The millennials have mostly lost out in each election so far. They are not coming out en masse to vote and the decisions taken, such as Brexit, are against their own immediate interests. It’s a baby boomer backlash.

The US and the UK, the world’s two most open and liberal countries, have just voted to close off their societies. Hate crime levels in these countries have increased. Europe must fight the forces that wish to retreat into a populist cocoon. Now is the time to go out and engage, discuss and convince, change and be the change you want to see, build bridges and a movement that doesn’t stay still. It’s following the spirit of Winston Churchill: gather your strength for dawn, for the dawn shall come. The alternative is more sleepless nights in Europe.